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SUNDAY,  JUNE 7,  2009

AND SOME ENCOURAGEMENT FROM EUROPE - AT 9:11 P.M. ET: 

June 7 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy led pro-business parties in defeating socialists in European Parliament elections, lessening the pressure for more stimulus measures to fight the deepest recession since World War II.

Amid signs the economic slump is bottoming out, the continent’s top two leaders escaped the drubbing in European Union-wide elections that was handed to U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown and socialists in smaller countries including Spain, Austria, Portugal, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovenia.

Merkel’s Christian Democrats and allied Christian Social Union racked up 38 percent of the German vote, beating the rival Social Democrats with 20.8 percent, according to preliminary results. Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Movement scored 28 percent, beating the Socialists with 16.8 percent.

COMMENT:  Not bad, considering that it's Europe.  Now if we can only get a pro-American vote next year in an American election.

June 7, 2009   Permalink

RARE GOOD NEWS FROM THE MIDEAST - AT 7:46 P.M. ET: 

BEIRUT, Lebanon — An American-backed alliance appeared to retain control of the Lebanese parliament Sunday in a hotly contested election that had been billed as a showdown between Tehran and Washington for influence in the Middle East.

Preliminary results reported on Lebanese television showed the alliance, known as the March 14 coalition, had not only won — but widened — its majority in the parliament. If those results are confirmed, they would represent a significant and unexpected defeat for Hezbollah and its allies, Iran and Syria. Most polls in Lebanon had showed a tight race, but one in which the Hezbollah-led group would win.

COMMENT:  No question.  That's good news.  Whether it had anything to do with President Obama's "outreach" to the Muslim world remains to be seen.  But we welcome any good news from that region.

June 7, 2009   Permalink

GREAT MOMENTS IN JOURNALISM - AT 7:30 P.M. ET:  In reporting developments in the aftermath of the Air France 447 crash, the BBC told us this on its website today:

The recovery of the first bodies and debris following the disappearance of the Air France flight from Rio de Janeiro to Paris has undoubtedly evoked varying reactions.

COMMENT:  You know, when we're in the presence of profound, penetrating journalism, we should at least salute it.  So we salute the BBC for providing an insight that is dazzling in its depth, its scope, and its sense of the human experience.  Keep it up.

June 7, 2009   Permalink

SARAH SIZZLES AGAIN - AT 10:25 A.M. ET:  Love her or loathe her, but Sarah Palin is on the speaking trail once again, and she hasn't lost her knack for firing up the base, as Ben Smith of The Politico reports:

I didn't get to this in my story on Palin's lower-48 in Seneca Falls, but she hasn't lost her ability to deliver a raw, base-riling stemwinder, and her introduction of Michael Reagan in Anchorage the other night is worth a listen (.mp3) and is currently making the rounds on the right.

She opens the introduction praising Reagan's son, a talk radio guy, for his willingness "to screw the political correctness that some would expect him to try to adhere to."

She blasts "self-proclaimed intellectuals, and the smug lobbyists who dominate Washington, and the liberal media."

And she suggests Obama is trying to impose big government as a tool of control.

COMMENT:  Look, I think Sarah Palin has some serious political problems, stemming largely from her less-than-stellar performance on the trail during the last presidential campaign.  But she also has terrific qualities.  Don't underestimate her.  She's one of the most fascinating political stories around today.

June 7, 2009   Permalink

LEBANON VOTES - AT 9:37 A.M. ET:  A critical election is being held in Lebanon today, one that could profoundly influence the future of the Middle East:

BEIRUT (AP) -- Lebanese streamed to their hometowns on the Mediterranean coast and high in the mountains Sunday to vote in a crucial election that could unseat a pro-Western government and install one dominated by the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.

The race for the 128-member parliament will set Lebanon's political course for the next four years, with repercussions beyond this tiny Arab country's borders. A win for the Shiite militant group, which the United States considers a terrorist organization, and its allies could bring isolation to Lebanon and possibly a new conflict with Israel.

COMMENT:  This is the first test of President Obama's outreach-to-Muslims policy.  Although Lebanon is divided between Christian and Muslim populations, there are divisions within each camp, with some Christians supporting Hezbollah and some Muslims opposing it.  We'll look for signs indicating whether the new Obama policy will convince Lebanese to vote against Hezbollah, listed by Washington as a terrorist group.

Naturally, Jimmah Carter is there to "monitor" the vote.  If his "monitoring" turns out to be as shabby as it's been in other countries, no one will take it seriously.  He can no better monitor an election that serve as president.  And, of course, Carter made his usual insulting comment:

Speaking at a polling station in Beirut's Christian sector of Ashrafieh, Carter expressed hope the U.S., Iran and other countries ''will accept the results of the election and not try to interfere in the process.''

Yup, Iran and the U.S., put on the same level.  We elected this man.  Our shame.

June 7, 2009   Permalink

CANADIAN RETALIATION - AT 9:23 A.M. ET:  We may cheer when "buy American" provisions are included in American law.  But, ultimately, they backfire:

WHISTLER, British Columbia (AP) — Canadian mayors have passed a resolution that would potentially shut out U.S. bidders from local city contracts.

The resolution is in retaliation to "Buy American" provisions in President Barack Obama's stimulus bill. Mayors voted 189-175 to approve the resolution at the Federation of Canadian Municipalities conference in Whistler, British Columbia.

COMMENT:  What did we expect?  That provision should have been dropped from the stimulus bill.  But we seem to be in a period where we punish our friends and reward our enemies.

There are negotiations under way between Washington and Ottawa to forge some kind of compromise.  I certainly hope so.

June 7, 2009   Permalink

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL - AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  One of the things to watch in the next week or two will be the trend in presidential approval.  In the last week we saw the bankruptcy of General Motors and the president's outreach, somewhat controversial in many circles, to the Muslim world.  Rasmussen reported a sharp drop in presidential approval, which started showing up on Wednesday.  It has continued.  Yesterday's Rasmussen report showed only a six-point gap between those who approve of the president's job performance and those who disapprove, 53-47%.  The approval is the lowest Rasmussen has registered since inauguration.  The disapproval is the highest.

Will this continue?  We'll check Rasmussen's numbers today and report to you, but we stress the importance of watching trends over time.

UPDATE:  Sunday's Rasmussen shows virtually no change, with a seven-point gap between approval and disapproval of the president's performance. 

June 7, 2009   Permalink 

SATURDAY,  JUNE 6,  2009

OBAMA AT OMAHA BEACH - AT 10:54 P.M. ET:  President Obama spoke at Omaha Beach today, commemorating the 65th anniversary of D-Day.  The text of the speech is here.  It was okay, no better, and somewhat below his usual standard.  A careful reading suggests that it was written by someone else, and not too carefully polished. 

We never expected Obama to equal the beautiful speech given by Ronald Reagan on the 40th anniversary of D-Day, in 1984.  Reagan was a part of the World War II generation.  He felt it.  Obama was going through the motions.  He didn't seem to feel much of anything.  Reagan's speech is here.

But there is a difference between the two men that goes beyond the difference in generations.  Ronald Reagan understood the importance of D-Day because he understood history.  He understood the implications of what men do, or fail to do.  Barack Obama is a lesser man, not fully formed, with, apparently, little interest in history beyond the minimum facts, or non-facts, needed for a speech.  He appears unable to speak beyond his own experience. 

Ronald Reagan never spoke about himself.  Barack Obama always seems to be speaking about himself.  Reagan may have been the actor, but it's Obama who places himself in every scene. 

For Obama, the human story is a classroom exercise or a series of intellectualized propositions.  Reagan could feel the flesh and the bone.

Read the two speeches.  Draw your own conclusions.

June 6, 2009   Permalink 

AIR FRANCE UPDATE - AT 3:08 P.M. ET:  From AP:

RECIFE, Brazil -- Searchers found two bodies and a briefcase containing a ticket for Air France Flight 447 in the Atlantic Ocean close to where the jetliner is believed to have crashed, a Brazil military official said Saturday.

COMMENT:  It's a grim reality, but examination of the bodies may give clues to a possible cause of the crash, especially if an explosion, spewing shrapnel or chemicals, was involved. 

June 6, 2009    Permalink

LATEST ON AIR FRANCE 447 - AT 11:38 A.M. ET:  We've been following the probe into Air France flight 447, which disappeared over the Atlantic last week on a flight from Rio to Paris.  We're following this because the disappearance is a mystery, and terrorism has not been ruled out.  From London's Telegraph:

The Air France plane that disappeared out of the sky en route from Brazil to France sent 24 automatic messages signalling system failures, French investigators have revealed.

Among them may have been the plane's autopilot, which was disengaged for the final minutes before the plane is believed to have plunged into the sea. But officials said it was not clear whether the autopilot had been switched off by the pilots, or had cut out because it received conflicting airspeed readings.

The mystery over what happened to flight AF447 deepened when French weather experts said there was no evidence the aircraft had encountered "exceptional" atmospheric conditions.

COMMENT:  That last point is startling and reminds us why we should be skeptical of initial reports after a catastrophic event.  We were initially told that the plane encountered severe turbulence, but that is apparently not the case.

What caused so many system failures?  Was there a major mechanical breakdown, unlikely on such a modern plane?  Or was there something else, an explosion perhaps?  Or was the plane improperly flown, possibly by someone who'd broken into the cockpit? 

We have no evidence - none - that terrorism was involved.  But the mystery grows greater, and nothing must be dismissed.  At the same time, news reports say it's quite possible that flight 447 will join the list of unsolved aviation disasters.

June 6, 2009   Permalink

QUITE REMARKABLE - AT 10:22 A.M. ET:  One of the most underreported stories by the American media is the breathtaking development of India's democracy.  Maybe it's underreported because President Bush was so successful in moving India toward the West, and one must not openly praise BUSH (!!).  But the facts speak for themselves and provide a very encouraging picture.  From the excellent Salim Mansur in the Toronto Sun:

India's recent election shows the distance this vast and diverse country has advanced on the path of democracy. How impressive this is may be appreciated when viewed in the context that no other developing society has confronted obstacles as many and huge as India in the process of making her democratic progress.

The sheer logistics of holding a country-wide election for 543 seats of the Lok Sabha -- 714 million eligible voters in a population of over 1.1 billion voting in more than 828,000 polling centres -- illustrate the demand on people and resources to make India the world's largest republican democracy.

The extent to which democracy has become part of India's political and social fabric -- the April-May voting was the 15th general election since the first, held in 1952, after India adopted a republican constitution with a parliamentary form of government in 1950 -- is one of the more optimistic stories in our world.

And...

India's emergence as a major global player and ally of the West is buttressed and legitimized by her democracy. This too is reason, in our somewhat grim world, deserving celebration.

COMMENT:  Celebrate we will, even without the press.  There was a time when India was openly hostile to the United States.  Times have changed.  And, isn't it interesting, as India has grown closer to the West, it has grown increasingly prosperous.  I wonder why.

June 6, 2009   Permalink

STARTLING - AT 9:27 A.M. ET:  Meeting with President Sarkozy of France, the president, possibly inadvertently, made a startling admission today, as reported by The New York Times.  He made this statement, with his usual "we're tough" theme:

Labeling North Korea’s behavior “extraordinarily provocative,” Mr. Obama said: “Diplomacy has to involve the other side engaging in a serious way in trying to solve problems, and we have not seen that kind of reaction from North Korea,” Mr. Obama said. “We are going to take a very hard look on how we move forward on these issues,” Mr. Obama said. “I don’t think there should be an assumption that we will simply continue down a path in which North Korea is constantly destabilizing the region and we just react in the same ways.”

But then this:

He added: “We are not intending to continue a policy of rewarding provocation.”

Say what?  The president thus confirms what his critics have been saying all along, that he's been rewarding North Korea for its actions.

As Jack Benny profoundly put it:  "Well!"

That is quite a statement.  But now the question is whether he will follow it up with action, or simply a tougher statement.  Wait 'til the left wing of the Democratic Party hears about Obama's admission.  They'll be up in arms.  No, wait.  They don't believe in arms.  Only disarmament.  So they'll be up in disarms.

June 6, 2009   Permalink

NEW ANALYSIS OF IRANIAN NUKES - AT 9:20 A.M. ET:  We reported on Iran's expanded uranium enrichment last night.  Here is a new analysis, even more troubling, from Eli Lake of the Washington Times.  Lake is one of the best reporters covering this subject:

Ignoring overtures for talks from the Obama administration, Iran has continued to build a stockpile of low-enriched uranium and could, within three to six months, convert the material into a nuclear weapon, according to nuclear specialists.

And what, precisely, has been the punishment for Iran?  Why, tough talk and very impressive frowns.

..according to an analysis of the latest IAEA report on Iran by the Institute for Science and International Security a Washington think tank that focuses on nuclear proliferation Iran produced an additional 329 kilograms (724 pounds) of low-enriched uranium from November through May, a 20-percent improvement in Iran's capacity to make the fuel.

And...

Nuclear weapons 'breakout capability' is a scenario that involves enriching LEU [low-enriched uranium] to weapon-grade uranium, said the analysis by nuclear specialists David Albright and Jacqueline Shire.

This could be accomplished within three to six months at either the Natanz facility or a clandestine gas centrifuge facility.

Lake points out that whether Iran is intent on building a bomb is controversial.  A 2007 U.S. intelligence estimate said that Iran had ceased the weaponization part of its program.  However...

European intelligence services and Israel assert that Iran is operating an active weapons program in secret.

Last month, President Obama appeared to let slip that he also believed the Iranians were seeking a weapon.

Former Israeli national security adviser Giora Eiland, in a briefing I attended, startled his audience by saying that Europe now has a tougher line on Iran than does the United States.

A second IAEA report released Friday found traces of uranium at a previously undisclosed site in Syria, raising the prospect that the Middle Eastern nation could be preserving nuclear capacity after Israeli jets bombed a fledging North Korea-style reactor in Syria in 2007.

Punishment?  Anyone?

June 6, 2009   Permalink